でしょう vs だろう — is one just the polite version of the other, or is there more to it?

Question

I've seen both used for 'probably', like 明日は晴れるでしょう and 明日は晴れるだろう. Are these truly 1:1 politeness swaps or are there situations where you'd specifically pick one over the other regardless of politeness level?

Accepted Answer

Mostly a 1:1 politeness swap for straightforward conjecture (だろう = plain/casual, でしょう = polite), but でしょう has an extra common usage plain だろう doesn't really carry as naturally: seeking agreement/confirmation with rising intonation, like これ、おいしいでしょう？('this is delicious, right?'). だろう can technically do this too in casual speech (これ、おいしいだろう？) but it sounds more blunt/masculine in that role. For weather forecasts and formal conjecture, both work fine at their respective politeness levels.